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課程名稱 |
極端氣候與熱脆弱度
A Comprehensive Analysis of Heatwaves, Heat Stress, and Risk Assessment |
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開課學期 |
112-1 |
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授課對象 |
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授課教師 |
曾琬鈴 |
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課號 |
IPCS1004 |
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課程識別碼 |
247 10040 |
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班次 |
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學分 |
3.0 |
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全/半年 |
半年 |
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必/選修 |
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上課時間 |
星期三3,4,5(10:20~13:10) |
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上課地點 |
全變中心G202 |
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備註 |
本課程中文授課,使用英文教科書。。A67:數學數位與量化分析、物質科學
總人數上限：30人 |
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課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
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課程大綱
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為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
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課程概述 |
In recent decades, the increased frequency of heatwave and drought extreme events has become more evident as a result of human-induced global warming. As a response, the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation emphasizes the need to raise awareness and understanding of compound weather and climate events. This encompasses examining their occurrence, key characteristics, and drivers in order to benefit societal and environmental risk assessments more effectively. |
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課程目標 |
The objective of this lecture is to provide a comprehensive understanding of heatwave phenomena and their associated impacts. Participants will gain insight into the definition of heatwaves, the factors contributing to their formation, and the potential consequences of these extreme events. To better assess and manage the risks posed by heatwaves, this lecture will also delve into the principles of risk probability and the development of damage functions. Participants will learn how to evaluate the likelihood and severity of heatwave events, as well as the resulting economic, social, and environmental impacts. By the end of the lecture, attendees will be equipped with the necessary knowledge and tools to better anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to the challenges presented by heatwaves and their associated impacts in a changing climate.
In this lecture, we will focus on three main objectives related to heatwaves and their impacts:
1. Heatwave calculation methods: We will explore various approaches to quantifying heatwaves, including the calendar day 90th percentile of maximum temperature (CTX), the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), and event detection methods. This section will provide a comprehensive understanding of the different metrics used in heatwave analysis.
2. Converting heatwave information to damage functions: We will discuss how to translate heatwave data into damage functions, which can be used to assess the potential impacts of these extreme events on various sectors such as human health, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure.
3. Risk probability calculation with an example: We will demonstrate how to calculate the risk probability of heatwave events using a real-world example. This exercise will help students grasp the concept of risk assessment and its application in heatwave management and adaptation strategies.
Please note that basic Python programming skills are required for this lecture, as we will be utilizing Python for data analysis and calculations. |
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課程要求 |
需要有python基礎或對程式有概念且願意學習使用者 |
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預期每週課後學習時數 |
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Office Hours |
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指定閱讀 |
待補 |
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參考書目 |
Week3:
Perkins, S. E., and Alexander, L. V., 2013: On the Measurement of Heat Waves. J. Climate, 26, 4500-4517.
______, L.V. Alexander, and J. R. Nairn, 2012: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of
Week4:
Nairn, J., R. Fawcett, and D. Ray, 2009: Defining and predicting excessive heat events: A national system. CAWCR Tech. Rep., 017, 83-86.
Week6:
Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., ... & Trauernicht, C. (2017). Global risk of deadly heat. Nature climate change, 7(7), 501-506.
Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Roye, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., ... & Gasparrini, A. (2021). The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature climate change, 11(6), 492-500.
Week 10
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Pierce, D. W. (2018). Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US. Climate Dynamics, 50, 3853-3864. |
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評量方式
(僅供參考) |
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週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
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第1週 |
9/06 |
Introduction of heatwave and syllabus |
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第2週 |
9/13 |
Heatwave review
Domeisen, D.I.V., Eltahir, E.A.B., Fischer, E.M. et al. Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 36–50 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z |
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第3週 |
9/20 |
EHF介紹
Russo, Simone, et al. "Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119.22 (2014): 12-500.
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第4週 |
9/27 |
Heatwave event review |
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第5週 |
10/04 |
invited talk |
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第6週 |
10/11 |
GIS heatwave detection |
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第7週 |
10/18 |
GIS heatwave detection |
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第8週 |
10/25 |
Mid-term |
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第9週 |
11/01 |
Mid-term |
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第10週 |
11/08 |
Wu, S., Luo, M., Zhao, R. et al. Local mechanisms for global daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 36 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00365-8 |
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第11週 |
11/15 |
Ｈoliday |
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第12週 |
11/22 |
Exposure
Lenton, Timothy M., et al. "Quantifying the human cost of global warming." Nature Sustainability (2023): 1-11.
Mortality
Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F. et al. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 492–500 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
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第13週 |
11/29 |
Risk
Thompson, V., Mitchell, D., Hegerl, G.C. et al. The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves. Nat Commun 14, 2152 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37554-1
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第14週 |
12/06 |
UHI
Zhang, K., Cao, C., Chu, H., Zhao, L., Zhao, J., & Lee, X. (2023). Increased heat risk in wet climate induced by urban humid heat. Nature, 1-5.
Vulnerability
vulnerability
Eun-Soon Im et al.,Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia.Sci.Adv.3,e1603322(2017). fDOI:10.1126/sciadv.1603322
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第15週 |
12/13 |
Discussion for final presentation |
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第16週 |
12/20 |
Final presentation |
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